The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (October-December) Q3 of 2010-11, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP. The details of the estimates are presented below.

    I.      ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a) At constant (2004-05) prices

Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2010-11 is estimated at Rs. 12,61,664 crore, as against  Rs. 11,66,145 crore in Q3 of 2009-10, showing a growth rate of  8.2 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2010-11 over Q3 of 2009-10 are, ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ at 8.9 per cent,  ‘construction’ at 8.0 percent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 9.4 per cent, and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 11.2 per cent.  The growth rate in ‘mining& quarrying’, ‘manufacturing’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ is estimated at 6.0 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively in this period.

According to the second advance estimates of production of crops released on 9.2.2011 by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2010-11, production of rice, coarse cereals and pulses during the Kharif season of 2010-11 is estimated to have increased by 5.6 per cent, 28.2 percent and 52.8 percent, respectively over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year.  Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds and sugarcane is estimated to have increased by 15.8 per cent  and 15.2 per cent, respectively during the Kharif season of  2010-11, while the production of cotton is expected to grow by 40.0 per cent during the  agriculture year 2010-11. However, horticultural crops and livestock products are expected to grow at 5.6 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively during 2010-11.

According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of 5.8 per cent, 5.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11, as compared to the growth rates of 10.3 per cent, 14.4 per cent and 3.8 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2009-10.  In the mining sector, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas  registered growth rates of 1.5 per cent, 15.5 per cent and 3.7 percent   in Q3 of 2010-11, as against the growth rates of 4.6 per cent, (-)0.9 percent and 50 per cent in Q3 of 2009-10.

Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 4.0 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11, as against the growth rates of 12.5 per cent and 6.7 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 22.1 per cent, 0.86 per cent, 12.2 per cent and 40.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2010-11 over Q3 of 2009-10.  The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 18.8 per cent and 27.9 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2010-11 over the corresponding period in 2009-10.

(b) At current prices
GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2010-11, is estimated at Rs. 19,09,112 crore, as against Rs. 16,25,784 crore in Q3, 2009-10, showing an increase of 17.4 per cent.

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 12.7 per cent, 24.5 per cent, 29.8  per cent, 17.1 per cent, 4.8 per cent,  5.0  per cent,  and 8.5 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2010-11, over Q3 of 2009-10. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.2 per cent during Q3 of 2010-11 over Q3 of 2009-10.

      II.  ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP

The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 12,26,673 crore in Q3  of 2010-11 as against Rs. 10,35,794 crore in Q3 of 2009-10.  At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 8,27,021 crore in Q3 of 2010-11 as against Rs. 7,58,706 crore in Q3 of 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2010-11 are estimated at 59.5 per cent and 60.1 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 60.1 per cent and 60.4 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,48,715 crore in Q3 of 2010-11 as against Rs. 2,33,523 crore in Q3 of 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,59,579 crore in Q3 of 2010-11 as against Rs. 1,64,536 crore in Q3 of 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2010-11 are estimated at 12.1 per cent and 11.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 13.5 per cent and 13.1 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,63,188 crore in Q3 of 2010-11 as against Rs. 5,03,004 crore in Q3 of 2009-10. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,10,767 crore in Q3 of 2010-11 as against Rs. 3,87,531 crore in Q3 of 2009-10. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2010-11 are estimated at 27.3  per cent and 29.8  per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.2 per cent and 30.9 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2009-10.